Glossary // Glossary term Technical

Confidence

In the evidence ledger, a rating of how firmly a specific claim is supported: HIGH, MODERATE, LOW or UNKNOWN. It is distinct from the evidence level, which classifies the design of a source, because a claim resting on strong designs can still merit lower confidence when results are inconsistent, indirect or drawn from narrow samples. UNKNOWN marks claims for which the available sources do not allow a responsible judgement.

Where the site uses it

  • Evidence ledger

    Every public claim on this site with its type, evidence level, confidence, sources and review date, and an appraisal of each reference. How claims are graded, how art is kept apart from evidence, and how to report a problem.

  • Methods: signals, inference and the limits of detecting a state change

    How one could reason about recording a catharsis-like change of state: signals, features, inference and context, baselines, self-report, error costs and ethics, and why every step stays uncertain. Nothing on this site measures anyone.